The most important yet misunderstood concept in climate science - Tim Lenton
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There is an essential and yet poorly understood concept in climate science: tipping points.
Several climate tipping points (like ice loss in Greenland and Antarctica or the slowdown of the Atlantic circulation) are dangerously close and run the risk of triggering a "tipping cascade".
To understand these risks and know how to keep us in a safe space through positive tipping points, we are talking with Professor Tim Lenton.
Tim Lenton is Chair in Climate Change and Earth System Science at the University of Exeter.
🔷 CHAPTERS
00:00 Introduction
05:33 The Earth system
11:18 Vital signs of the system
15:28 Tipping points
29:00 Irreversibility
32:34 Civilizational tipping points
35:08 Early warning signals
38:31 Socio-ecological tipping points
44:19 Positive tipping points
🔷 REFERENCES
Recommended books:
• Gaia, a new look at life on earth (1979) James Lovelock
• The Ages of Gaia (1988), James Lovelock
Scientific articles:
• Lenton's tipping points article (paywall): https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03595-0
• Planetary boundaries: https://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/planetary-boundaries.html
• Social tipping points (the "25% rule"): https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29880688/
🔷 MAIN TAKEAWAYS
• Map of the tipping elements (HD): https://i.ibb.co/DbKqshq/elements.png
2 main views:
• Object (thing) perspective: seeing the system's elements as static and well defined (better spatial accuracy, worse temporal fidelity)
• Process perspective: seeing the system's elements as changing and interconnected (better temporal fidelity, worse spatial accuracy)
Types of feedback loops:
• Damping feedback (provides stability)
• Amplifying feedback (creates possible instability)
Types of cycles:
• Real cycles made of material flows
• Causal cycles made of causal chains between events
Tipping point:
• Threshold of an amplifying feedback loop beyond which change becomes self-propelling
• Happen when the damping feedbacks get weaker than the amplifying feedbacks (variability increases)
🎤 Interview: Aristide Athanassiadis
🎞️ Editing: https://codexprod.fr
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