The Economist Asks: Philip Tetlock

In the face of electoral upsets and viral black swans, Anne McElvoy asks the cofounder of the Good Judgement “superforecaster” project whether today’s future-gazers should still rely on historical precedent. As pollsters compete to predict who will win the US presidential election, what lessons have yet to be learned from 2016? And, where to spot the next black swan—or at least a dark grey one.


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