The Horn

Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on South Sudan from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa director Alan Boswell and South Sudan expert Daniel Akesh to discuss the escalating violence in South Sudan. They examine what’s behind clashes between government forces and opposition-linked militias, which began in Upper Nile state before spreading to other parts of the country. They look at President Salva Kiir’s recent government shakeup, including the dismissal of both former Kiir allies and key opposition figures and rivals, most notably First Vice President Riek Machar, a co-signatory of the 2018 peace agreement. They also talk about how the war in neighbouring Sudan has compounded tensions in South Sudan and Juba’s uneasy balancing act with Sudan’s warring factions, both of which control territory along a vital oil pipeline. Finally, they discuss the muted response from outside South Sudan, what a renewed conflict could mean for regional stability and the legacy of the country’s fragile 2018 deal. For more, be sure to check out our recent Alert “South Sudan on the Precipice of Renewed Full-blown War”, our briefing “Eight Priorities for the African Union in 2025” and our South Sudan country page.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Omar Mahmood, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Somalia and the Horn of Africa to discuss Somalia’s uncertain new global context with the dawn of a new Trump administration. They first unpack the recent Ankara declaration between Somalia and Ethiopia and the failure to find funding for the new African Union mission in Somalia. They then explore what the Trump administration might do on Somalia, the potential for a major rupture in Washington’s support for Somalia’s federal government, and what this could mean for European, Turkish and Arab support for Somalia’s government. They also assess new offensives from Al-Shabaab and how the group is trying to posture itself amid all these shifts. For more, check out the last episodes of The Horn on Somalia What to Expect from the New AU Mission in Somalia and Somalia amid a Swirl of Regional Tensions as well as our Somalia country page.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Michael Woldemariam, associate professor at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy, to discuss the risk of renewed war between Ethiopia and Eritrea amid rising regional tensions and a deepening political crisis in Tigray. They explore how relations between Addis Ababa and Asmara have deteriorated since the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, which ended the Tigray war, but notably excluded Eritrea. They delve into the rupture of Tigray’s political leadership and how growing instability in the region has fuelled tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea. They also discuss prospects for de-escalation to prevent another devastating war in the Horn of Africa.For more, check out the latest The Horn episodes with Michael: End of One War, Start of Another in Ethiopia and Eritrea’s Long Bitter Feud with Ethiopia’s Tigray as well as our Horn of Africa regional page. 

In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Sara Pantuliano, Chief Executive Officer of ODI Global, to discuss the Trump administration’s sudden halting of most foreign aid amid a trend of broader cuts to foreign aid by Western governments. They examine whether the abrupt funding freeze for USAID is collapsing aid operations on the ground, and why that matters. They also talk about why other Western donor countries are reducing aid budgets as well. They further discuss longstanding critiques of the aid industry, including from recipient countries, and why the system proved resistant to such reforms. They discuss the type of aid given by “non-traditional” non-Western donors and whether such differing approaches to aid can be bridged. Finally, they consider if an international aid system can be rebuilt and what will be the consequences if it is not.  For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our The Horn episode “Trump’s Aid Cuts and What Africa Should Expect Next” and our latest Q&A “Amid Aid Cuts, a Renewed U.S. Policy Increases Health Risks for Women and Girls in Conflict Areas”.

Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on Sudan from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Crisis Group’s Sudan expert Shewit Woldemichael and Horn of Africa director Alan Boswell, to discuss the Sudanese army’s military advances against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Khartoum and other parts of Sudan amid a devastating humanitarian crisis. They assess what explains the shifting battlefield momentum and why an end to the conflict appears out of sight despite the RSF’s setbacks. They examine how both the army and RSF are manoeuvring for political influence, with each side laying out plans for rival governments. They also explore the role of external actors in the war, challenges facing diplomatic efforts and the implications of Washington’s potential disengagement from the region.For more, be sure to check out our recent statement “Battle for Khartoum Marks a Crossroads in Sudan’s Civil War”, our briefing “Eight Priorities for the African Union in 2025” and our Sudan country page.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Joshua Meservey, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, to discuss U.S. President Donald Trump’s Africa policy. They examine the Trump administration’s recent freeze on foreign aid, its push to abolish the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), and whether the administration may restore some humanitarian assistance. They unpack what else the continent might expect from Trump’s second term, including recent tensions with South Africa over land expropriation laws and competition with China over mineral supply chains. They also assess how the Trump administration might approach the conflict in Sudan, U.S. policy towards Somalia and Somaliland, the crisis in the Great Lakes, and the growing role of Middle East powers in the Horn of Africa and beyond.For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Hold Your Fire! podcast episode Trump in Africa, our briefing “Eight Priorities for the African Union in 2025” and our Africa program page. 

In this episode of The Horn, guest host Nazanine Moshiri is joined by Liesl Louw-Vaudran, Crisis Group’s Senior Advisor to the African Union (AU), to talk about the upcoming elections for the AU Commission Chairperson. They unpack the chair’s mandate, the challenges faced by the current officeholder, Moussa Faki Mahamat, and his track record. With the race heating up, they examine the three leading candidates – Mahmoud Ali Yusuf (Djibouti), Raila Odinga (Kenya), and Richard Randriamandrato (Madagascar) – exploring their leadership styles and how each could shape the AU’s future. The conversation delves into the AU’s struggles in resolving conflicts across Africa, particularly in the Horn, Sudan, and Somalia, and how the next chair could strengthen its peace efforts. They also discuss the AU’s funding challenges as Western donors shift priorities and how the organisation can strengthen its role on the global stage.Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Africa Union page

In this episode of The Horn, guest host Omar Mahmood is joined by Paul Williams, professor of international relations at George Washington University, to discuss the newly authorised African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM). They assess the record of past AU-led missions in Somalia and review the AU’s role in supporting state-building efforts in the country. They explore how Al-Shabaab’s enduring threat and regional political dynamics have influenced the latest mission’s scope and objectives. They point out the operational, financial and political hurdles facing AUSSOM, looking at how the new mission can succeed where its predecessors fell short. They also reflect on the future of peace operations in Africa more broadly.For more on the topics discussed in this episode, be sure to check out Paul’s book “Fighting for Peace in Somalia: A History and Analysis of the Africa Union Mission”, UNSC Resolution 2568 (2021) on the reform of AMISOM, our latest report “Reforming the AU Mission in Somalia” and our Horn of Africa project page.

In this episode of The Horn, guest host Elissa Jobson speaks with Kwesi Sansculotte-Greenidge, former Senior Conflict and Access Advisor at the World Food Programme, and Abdalla Hussein, operational manager at Médecins Sans Frontières. They unpack the concept of humanitarian diplomacy and the challenges aid organisations face in negotiating access to civilians in conflict-affected areas, including in Sudan. They talk about the difficulties of coordinating efforts among aid organisations and the obstacles they encounter in getting conflict parties to uphold humanitarian principles amid competing interests and bureaucratic hurdles. They discuss how mediation efforts to end conflicts are often linked with negotiations for aid access and why it could make sense to separate the two tracks in cases like Sudan. They also discuss how aid organisations navigate a shifting global order and the rising influence of middle powers in conflict areas.This episode is produced in partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Horn of Africa program page.